*All NFL game data courtesy of https://www.pro-football-reference.com/. All TV ratings data courtesy of https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/.
Odell Beckham Jr. made headlines this week on the tails of his interview with GQ. The most controversial piece came when OBJ was asked about how he felt when the Giants traded him away.
“I felt disrespected, because I felt like I was a main reason at keeping that brand alive. They were getting prime-time games, still, as a 5-and-11 team. Why? Because people want to see the show. You want to see me play. That’s just real rap. I’m not sitting here like, “It’s because of me.” But let’s just be real. That’s why we’re still getting prime-time games.”
Odell is undoubtedly a talented player. However, claiming to be the main reason for “keeping the Giants brand alive” is a ludicrous statement. The Giants are a historic franchise in the largest media market of the most valuable league in sports. Even so, let’s humor the notion for a minute.
Following Odell’s argument, the Giants “brand” would surely take a hit after shipping their main attraction to Cleveland. If the Big Mac went over to play for Burger King, it probably wouldn’t be great for McDonald’s stock price. The value of the Giants should then similarly take a dive. With a fantastic sense of irony, Forbes dropped their list of the 50 most valuable sports franchises this very same week. The Giants’ valuation remained constant from 2018 at $3.3 billion, good enough to remain in the top-10 most valuable franchises across sports and good enough to remain as the #3 most valuable NFL franchise. Sorry Odell, the brand looks good.
Okay, but valuation takes into account so many different factors, there’s no way that losing a player even as talented as Beckham would impact the overall value of the franchise. Sure, fine. Then, let’s look at the primetime games that OBJ referenced.
Since 2016, the Giants have played 26 games in primetime (not on NFL Network), tied for fourth most in that timespan. Across primetime games, the Giants have averaged a TV rating of 9.83 (9th highest in the NFL). The top-10 figures indicate that the Giants have a baseline of high popularity. Is it due to Beckham?
For primetime games in which Beckham played the last three seasons, the average rating ticked up to 10.3 (7th), versus a 9.3 rating (16th) without him. So OBJ takes the Giants from average ratings to elite ratings? “Not so fast, my friends” said Lee Corso on a brisk fall Saturday morning.
Half of Beckham’s games played over the last three years came in 2016. That same year the Giants posted an 11-5 record and made the playoffs. During this season, Giants’ primetime games averaged an astounding 11.1 rating. This would be good for the second highest in the NFL over the last three years. Likely the success of the team and the added drama of a playoff push accounted for these high ratings. The high ratings for the playoff season drag the average ratings for Odell games higher, making him seem more valuable than he really is to the “brand”.
Well, you may be thinking, Odell playing more often causes the Giants to win more often and winning more often causes better ratings, so Odell causes better ratings. Well, not really. The Giants were 15-17 with Odell over the last three years. Not exactly a record indicating that Odell causes much winning at all.
After the playoff season, in 2017 and 2018, the Giants were 4-12 with Odell and 4-12 without Odell. The Giants actually posted better ratings in games that Odell did not play (8.5 with, 9.3 without). However, they did play two more games against the ratings-juggernaut Cowboys in the absence of OBJ. Removing the two highest rated NYG-DAL games without OBJ, the ratings with and without Odell are basically the same (8.5 with, 8.3 without). There seems to be no impact of OBJ on viewership of primetime games that does not depend on the Giants actually being a good football team. Therefore, the team is what matters more to the brand than Odell.
So the Giants win at the same rate with and without Odell, draw viewers at the same rate with and without Odell, and have the same financial valuation with and without Odell. All evidence points to the fact that having Odell Beckham on your team really doesn’t matter. It is probably better to get rid of a guy that doesn’t help than to pay him close to $100 million. So, OBJ, next time you feel disrespected by the Giants, don’t. That’s just real rap.
Eye Test Sports 