The Big East is back on a Friday night, as the Johnnies travel to the Rock in Newark, NJ to take on rivals Seton Hall. Both teams had the chance to tune-up for this fight as each won against low-major competition on Tuesday. Seton Hall has been tested early, opening the season 1-3 with three losses to KenPom Top 100 teams. They’ve rebounded with an overtime win on the road at Penn State last week and now sit at 3-3 on the year. St. John’s has started well out of the gate notching five wins including one over Boston College and just one loss coming to BYU. They’ll face their toughest challenge of the young season on Friday night.
We have a tempo battle on our hands here. St. John’s plays a blistering pace, the 9th fastest in the country fueled by an aggressive defense that generates a live-ball steal on 16% of its opponents’ possessions (also 9th best in the country). On the other side, Seton Hall is more strategic on offense and will make you work for a shot on defense. They play at the 266th fastest pace in D-I hoops. St. John’s will try to speed it up, and Seton Hall will try to slow it down, whoever can get the game at the pace they like will have an advantage.
Seton Hall is led by senior big man Sandro Mamukelashvili and junior guard Jared Rhoden who have accounted for 44% of the team’s points this season. The focal point of the Pirate’s strategy to drive hard to the rim and get fouled or kick to an open shooter. Seton Hall is top-20 in the country in getting to the free-throw line. Rhoden has led that charge with the most free-throw attempts on the team. Mamukelashvili can find space to receive a pass for a dunk on these drives or float to the three-point line where he shot an astounding 43.4% last season. The question marks surround the point guard position. Talented Harvard-transfer Bryce Aiken has been sidelined with an ankle injury. His replacement Shavar Reynolds has played well, averaging 9.5 pts/5.7 ast/2.2 stl in Aiken’s absence. However, Reynolds has turned the ball over 2.2 times per game. His ball security will be a pivotal factor against the tenacious St. John’s guards.
St. John’s is led by sophomore utility man Julian Champagnie. At 6’7″, he is listed as a guard, but you will find him floating down low and causing havoc on the offensive glass (2.5 ORB per game). He is supported by a stable of guards (Posh Alexander, Vince Cole, Greg Williams) and other positionless athletes Marcus Earlington and Isaih Moore. This group also wants to get to the rim, especially in transition. They rank 270th in three-point attempts and attempt 50% of their field goals at the rim (Hoop-Math). The Johnnies also face their own issues at point guard, as returning senior Rasheem Dunn has missed time with a concussion. His steady hand and shot-creating would be a boost to get back in the lineup for Big East play. Freshman Posh Alexander has shown flashes of talent filling in at the point, but he has committed 3.5 turnovers per game. In contested a game that likely will be close late, point guard play will be at a premium.
Neither team sports a particularly dynamic defense and I think St. John’s will be able to get out in transition and speed this game up. However, the Red Storms’s lackluster 2PT defense (245th) could allow Sandro to have a big game. The quick pace combined with both team’s penchant for going inside could also result in fouls piling up on both sides. This could be a battle of depth for large stretches. I think we will see lots of points in close game. If Dunn plays I will give the edge to St. John’s, if not I think Seton Hall pulls it out.
Eye Test Sports 