Indiana heads on the road to Florida St. in one of the better matchups of the ACC-B1G challenge. Indiana has been tested early with wins over KenPom Top-100 teams Stanford and Providence while falling to KenPom’s #5 Texas Longhorns. The Hoosiers are led by the tremendous 2nd Team Preseason All-American Trayce Jackson-Davis who is averaging 21.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists so far this season.
Florida St. opened the season with a blowout win over cupcake North Florida a week ago and have not played since. The ‘Noles lost some major pieces from last year in NBA lottery picks Devin Vassell and Patrick Williams, as well as their former second-leading scorer Trent Forrest. However, Leonard Hamilton returns almost every other contributor and adds 5-star freshman Scottie Barnes. Senior guard M.J. Walker emerged as the team’s first choice offensively in their season opener, pouring in 17 points in 27 minutes on just eight field-goal attempts.
This is an interesting matchup early in the season because these two teams want to play a pretty similar style of basketball. They both sport very good defenses (both top 16 in Adj. Def at KenPom) and offenses not focused on the three-point shot. Both teams have consistently ranked near 200th in 3PA% over the last four years. Both teams also feature athletic guards that put pressure on ball-handlers. Indiana’s guards hounded Providence and used their athleticism to disrupt the Friars’ offensive flow along the perimeter. This will be tougher for Indiana to pull off against Florida St. that always has one of the most athletic teams in the country.
Despite both being effective defense, they each emphasize a different phase of the game. Indiana has locked down on outside point shooters, allowing opponents to shoot just 23% from three. This comes at the expense of their 2P defense, as Indiana has allowed a mediocre 48% on FG from inside the arc. On the other side, Florida St. focuses on toughening up inside. They have been among the 50 best defenses against 2P shots three of the last four years (coming in at 70th last season) and allowed just eight 2-pointers in their first outing of the season. This defense comes from strong guards that prevent penetration, length through the team, and is bolstered by 7-foot center Balsa Koprivica.
The key to the game lies in the matchup between the dominant interior scorer Trayce Jackson-Davis and the stiff Florida St. interior defense. If Florida St. decides to focus on TJD, can Jackson-Davis find open teammates and will they be able to knock down shots? This will likely be a grinding game where each possession matters. Both teams will need to get easy buckets in transition when they can. I don’t think Indiana has enough secondary scoring to get it done, and Florida St. rides its defense to a win in a slugfest.
How Indiana Wins: An efficient game from TJD and their defense cements that it’s for real.
How Florida St. Wins: Make Indiana uncomfortable on offense and get in the lane consistently.
Question Marks:
- Where does the offense come from for Florida St.?
- Can 7-footer Koprivica stay with Jackson-Davis?
- Who wins the guard battle?
- Can Indiana generate secondary looks if TJD is getting taken out of the game?
Eye Test Sports 